USA

Year to Date (YTD)

Commentary: The U.S. economy has lately shown signs of cooling, though overall activity remains relatively resilient. Consumer spending continues to support growth, but tighter financial conditions and elevated energy prices are weighing on sentiment. Labour market data surprised to the upside in March, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 178,000 and the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%. Inflation accelerated notably, with annual CPI rising to 3.3% in March (up from 2.4% in February), driven by a sharp 11% surge in energy prices amid heightened volatility in the oil market linked to developments involving Iran. The Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance at its March meeting, keeping interest rates unchanged. Equity markets have experienced increased volatility as geopolitics keep affecting market sentiment as  US equity markets remain down YTD.

Europe & UK

Year to Date (YTD)

Commentary: The euro area economy remained largely subdued, with modest growth continuing in Germany, France and Italy while Spain maintained its outperformance. Activity was supported mainly by services and household spending, though manufacturing stayed weak amid soft external demand and emerging supply disruptions. Inflation rose notably to 2.5% in March, largely driven by due to a 4.9% surge in energy prices linked to Middle East developments and rising oil volatility. The ECB kept key interest rates unchanged at its March meeting, with the deposit rate at 2%, while raising its 2026 inflation projection to 2.6% and lowering GDP growth forecast to 0.9% due to heightened uncertainty. The Euro Stoxx 50 experienced increased volatility but still remained slightly positive YTD as of mid-April.

Malta

Year to Date (YTD)

Commentary: Malta’s economic prospects remain positive with growth expectations for 2026 in the range of 3.7–4.0%. Credit rating Agency DBRS confirmed Malta’s strong credit profile supported by robust domestic demand and strong service exports, particularly tourism, up 12.9% year-on-year. The general government deficit narrowed to an estimated 3.0% of GDP in 2025, while public debt stood at approximately 47% of GDP. The Central Bank of Malta forecasts the deficit to decline further to 2.8% in 2026. Inflation remained contained, with HICP at 2.3% in early 2026. The labour market stayed tight, with unemployment around the 3%. The MALTEX index is now up by more than 5% YTD as of mid-April 2026 as multiple companies report their respective annual earnings.