USA

Year to Date (YTD)

Commentary: The U.S. economy has continued to send mixed signals, balancing solid growth with signs of a cooling labour market and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. The government shutdown, which lasted for a record 43 days, created short-term disruptions in spending and contracting activity. Despite this, underlying economic momentum remains intact, with GDP growth holding at 3.7% annualized in the third quarter. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.4%, and forecasts suggest it could rise further, peaking near 5% in early 2026 before stabilizing. Inflation has moderated further, with October’s Consumer Price Index rising 3.1% year-on-year, with markets largely uncertain on another cut by the FED in the December meeting. Markets lately saw more volatility but largely maintained their positive streak with the S&P500 up 14.5%, whilst the NASDAQ up 18.6%.

Europe & UK

Year to Date (YTD)

Commentary: The euro area economy has remained resilient through early November 2025, though growth momentum has slowed amid global headwinds. The IMF projects annual growth of 1.2% for 2025, reflecting weaker consumption, declining investment, and subdued exports. Eurostat’s third-quarter flash estimates showed output rising 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, with notable divergence across member states: France grew 0.5% and Spain 0.6%, while Germany and Italy stagnated, underscoring uneven performance across the bloc. Inflation cooled down to 2.1% in October, remaining close to the ECB’s medium-term target. At its latest meeting, the ECB kept the deposit facility rate at 2.0%, emphasizing a data-dependent approach and confidence in the disinflationary process, while acknowledging structural challenges in investment and external demand. Financial markets have remained buoyant despite modest growth, with the Eurostoxx 50 up 14.7% year-to-date, supported by strong corporate earnings and investor confidence in policy stability.

Malta

Year to Date (YTD)

Commentary: Recently, credit rating agency Scope issued a report and noted Malta’s long-term A+/Stable ratings reflect strong economic momentum, fiscal prudence, moderate debt, a resilient external position supported by euro area membership, and a robust banking sector. Scope remarked that Malta is being faced by challenges pertaining to reliance on external resources, fiscal risks from energy subsidies and demographics, and weaker governance metrics relative to peers. Real GDP growth is projected at 3.9% in 2025, down from 6.8% in 2024, yet still well above the EU average. Growth will be driven by domestic consumption, aided by tax reforms and favourable labour conditions, alongside solid services exports. The fiscal deficit is expected to narrow to 3.2% of GDP in 2025 whilst debt is projected to remain stable below 50% of GDP through 2030. The MALTEX index turned positive as Bank of Valletta, APS Bank and HSBC all reported largely positive results during their Q3 updates. The MALTEX is now up 0.7% YTD.