USA

Year to Date (YTD)

Commentary: The U.S. economy is showing mixed signals with high economic growth but a cooling labour market. GDP grew at 3.8% in annualised growth, better than expected. Economists are expecting around 51,000 added jobs with the unemployment rate projected to be around the 4.3% mark. Unemployment is expected to peak at around 5% before stabilising later next year. The latest inflation data is expected to be released on 24 October. Markets are pricing in two additional 25bp rate cuts in its final meetings this year. Markets have been volatile lately as the China-US trade war came back on the cards. Trump is still scheduled to meet Xi later this month. Despite the geopolitical issues, markets are still positive with the S&P 500 up 13.4%, while the NASDAQ up 17.4%.

Europe & UK

Year to Date (YTD)

Commentary: The euro area economy has continued to demonstrate resilience despite persistent global headwinds, though growth momentum has softened. The IMF has reported that the Eurozone annual growth is now expected to be 1.2% 2025, reflecting weaker private consumption, declining investment, and subdued exports. Inflation edged up slightly to 2.2% in September, remaining close to the European Central Bank’s medium-term target. At its October meeting, the ECB kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.0%, emphasising a broadly balanced outlook. Financial markets, have shown optimism; the Eurostoxx 50 has risen 14.7% YTD, buoyed by strong corporate earnings and investor confidence in policy stability. This divergence between modest economic growth and robust market performance underscores the euro area’s capacity to withstand external pressures, even as structural challenges continue to weigh on its medium-term trajectory.

Malta

Year to Date (YTD)

Commentary: Malta has retained its A (high) credit rating with a stable outlook from Morningstar DBRS, reflecting strong economic resilience and sound financial fundamentals. The agency reaffirmed Malta’s long-term ratings at A (high), citing eurozone membership, a robust banking sector, and a solid external position. DBRS noted narrowing deficits, moderate debt, and steady growth, though cautioned on energy subsidies, tax cuts, and property market risks. Tourism and services remain key drivers of Malta’s positive outlook. The MALTEX index remained largely flat in spite of strong economic numbers. October saw the listing of Quinco Holdings plc, a spin-off company from Simonds Farsons Cisk plc. Malta International Airport once again reported record numbers, whilst APS Bank announced the offering of a €45 million rights issue for its shareholders in order to further strengthen its capital base.