USA

Year to Date (YTD)

Commentary: The US economy maintained its positive streak despite signs of cooling. The labour market added only 73,000 jobs in July nonfarm payrolls increasing by and maintained downward revisions. The unemployment rate nudged up to 4.2%, and manufacturing employment dropped to a three-year low, with job gains came primarily from health care and social assistance. Wage growth was moderate, with hourly earnings up 0.3% in July and 3.9% year-over-year, slightly outpacing inflation. The Consumer Price Index is expected to average between 3% and 3.5% for the year, trending lower toward 2% by 2027. Calls for a maiden rate cut are becoming more justifiable as economic warning signs are there, in tandem with steady inflation rates in spite of the uncertainty. Markets largely maintained their positive momentum with the S&P500 up by 8.4% whilst the NASDAQ up 10.7%

Europe & UK

Year to Date (YTD)

Commentary: The euro area economy continues to exhibit moderate resilience amid persistent external pressures. The European Central Bank maintained its deposit facility rate at 2% in its July meeting, citing inflation at the 2% medium-term target and a broadly stable outlook. Real GDP growth slowed markedly in the second quarter, expanding by just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, down from 0.6% in the first quarter, with annual growth at 1.4%. Spain and Portugal led gains, while Germany and Italy posted slight contractions. Fiscal consolidation remains on track, with the euro area deficit projected to narrow to 2.8% of GDP and public debt stabilising around 90%, in line with the reformed EU fiscal framework. The ECB reiterated its cautious stance as geopolitical tensions and US trade policy uncertainty continue to weigh on sentiment. Equity markets remained resilient, with the Eurostoxx 50 reaching record highs in July before a modest pullback in early August. The Eurostoxx 50 is now 8.7% YTD.

Malta

Year to Date (YTD)

Commentary: According to the latest issue by the Central Bank, in the first quarter of 2025, the annual growth in GDP was marginally below that recorded in the preceding quarter. The expansion was primarily supported by domestic demand, while the contribution of net exports remained limited. Real GDP growth continued to exceed the average rate observed across the euro area. Labour market indicators continued to reflect resilience, notwithstanding emerging signs of softening demand. The unemployment rate declined further, reaching a historic low and remaining well beneath the euro area average. The MALTEX improved slightly after the local banks announced their performance as at the end of June 2025. Malta International Airport reported yet again record numbers as the share price notched the €6 mark once again.